The Cabinet of Ministers changed the state order rules: budget places will be determined by the needs of the economy
For the first time in Ukraine, the state order for training specialists has been formed based on a long-term forecast of labor market needs. The relevant decision was made by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine.
The resolution initiates a reform of the state order in the field of education. From now on, its formation will be based not only on the proposals of state customers but primarily on the forecast of which specialists the Ukrainian economy will need in the future. This is the first long-term forecast of the economy's needs for specialists in Ukraine, prepared based on economic modeling.
Today, the Ukrainian labor market is characterized by a significant structural imbalance: the demand of employers and the supply of labor often do not match. One of the key reasons is the mismatch between knowledge, skills, and qualifications and the needs of the economy. To overcome this imbalance, it is necessary to systematically forecast which specialists and competencies Ukraine will need in the coming years and accordingly adapt the education system.
"We worked on this forecast for almost a year. For the first time, we have a ten-year forecast of labor market needs, which allows us to much more accurately assess which specialists the economy will need in the future, and also helps make the state order more justified and closer to the real needs of the economy," said Daria Marchak, Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture of Ukraine.
The new approach will be applied already to the state order for 2026-2027.
The resolution introduces three interconnected elements of the new approach to forming the state order.
- Long-term forecasting of labor market needs
Within the new approach, economic modeling of the economy's need for specialists and workers until 2036 was conducted. It was prepared by the Ministry of Economy together with KPMG with the support of the Government of Belgium. The document was discussed with Ukrainian experts, business associations, and other stakeholders. The forecast takes into account expected structural changes in the economy under the influence of reconstruction, technological development, demographic trends, migration processes, and European integration.
According to the baseline scenario, the economy's need for employed persons will increase from 12.9 million in 2025 to 13.6 million in 2030 and 14.6 million in 2036. At the same time, not only the number of workers will change but also the structure of demand. The greatest growth will be in demand for technical, engineering, manufacturing, construction, medical, scientific, and other applied fields.
Reconstruction of the country will create additional demand in construction, manufacturing, and related industries. In particular, in construction, the need for employed persons may increase from about 520 thousand to over 1.2 million in 2036. Demand will also grow for workers in manufacturing, professional, scientific, and technical activities.
At the same time, it should be noted that this is the first cycle of such forecasting and the first application of the new methodology in forming the state order. Economic modeling is always based on assumptions, especially in conditions of war and high uncertainty. That is why the forecast is considered a pilot project that will be regularly updated and improved. The Ministry is open to proposals from Ukrainian and international experts regarding the development of the methodology and improving forecast accuracy.
- Assessment of the economy's need for new specialists
Based on the labor market needs forecast, an assessment of the economy's need for new specialists was conducted. According to calculations, only in 2032–2036 the economy will need about 2.62 million new workers. The greatest demand is forecasted for professionals, skilled workers with tools, technical specialists, production workers, and workers in trade and services.
At the same time, the forecast shows that meeting the future needs of the economy solely through graduates of educational institutions will be impossible. This means that alongside education reform, policies to involve the economically inactive population in the labor market and to return Ukrainians from abroad remain necessary.
The assessment also made it possible to form a forecast of the economy's need for entrants to vocational, professional pre-higher, and higher education institutions. It shows a gradual increase in demand for vocational and professional pre-higher education, while the economy will still require a significant number of specialists with higher education. This means that the education system must develop in a balanced way, strengthening all levels of training according to the long-term needs of the economy.
Importantly, the forecast determines the economy's need for new workers, not automatically the number of budget places or entrants. The state order is also formed taking into account the capabilities of the education system, state policy, and other factors.
- New approach to forming the state order
Based on the labor market needs forecast and the assessment of the economy's need for new specialists, the state order for training specialists, scientific, scientific-pedagogical, and working personnel, as well as for advanced training and retraining of personnel in 2026, was formed.
The adopted decision initiates the transition to a system in which the training of specialists will gradually be aligned with the real needs of the economy.
Further, the forecast is planned to be updated regularly so that the state order can promptly respond to changes in the economy and labor market. The long-term goal of the reform is to make the labor market needs forecast an open and accessible tool for the state, educational institutions, employers, and future entrants.
In the future, the forecasting results should become open to everyone — so that employers, educational institutions, and future entrants can better navigate which professions will be most in demand in a few years.
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