Personnel Crisis in Ukraine: Why Attracting Migrants Alone Will Not Replace the Return of Ukrainians
The return of Ukrainians is a key factor in the post-war economic recovery, and the personnel shortage cannot be resolved solely by relying on labor migrants. This was reported by the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy, citing IMF data and international studies.
The committee noted that, according to the IMF, after military conflicts, the labor market usually recovers faster than capital and productivity due to the return of refugees and the redistribution of workers from military to civilian economic activities.
They emphasized that people determine the pace of GDP growth, the expansion of the tax base, and the development of local entrepreneurship. The return of citizens also affects the capacity of communities, as with an increase in population, demand grows, jobs are created, and business activity intensifies.
The committee stressed that people are the main driving force of post-war recovery, and without the return of citizens, their participation in the labor market, and the restoration of local economic activity, full recovery of the country is impossible.
At the same time, the personnel shortage in Ukraine remains a serious problem. According to the committee, its solution should not be limited to replacing workers who left abroad, were forcibly displaced, or joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine with migrant workers. It is necessary to create conditions for the return of Ukrainians, reintegration of veterans, employment of internally displaced persons, retention of youth, and retraining of workers. Alongside this, for certain sectors where the personnel shortage cannot be covered domestically, attracting workers from abroad may be necessary.
According to statistics from other military conflicts, even five years after peace is established, about 60% of people who left return to the country.
The committee also pointed out that when deciding to return, citizens primarily assess the security situation, availability of housing, jobs, accessibility of schools and medical facilities, as well as prospects for children and the ability to plan a future in Ukraine.
Additionally, according to UNHCR data, those most often planning to return home are older people and those who have relatives in Ukraine, while employed individuals more often show lower intentions to return.
At the same time, according to the IMF analytical report and macroeconomic modeling, about 54% of intentions to return home are related to government decisions and conditions created in the country, while individual circumstances influence only 20%.
The committee emphasized that effective steps by the state are necessary for the return of citizens, as more than half of the decisions to return depend precisely on the conditions created in the country.
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