State Statistics Service recorded GDP decline: what the data for the first quarter showed
In the first quarter of 2026, real gross domestic product decreased by 0.7% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025 due to seasonal factors. And compared to the first quarter of 2025, the decline was 0.6%. This is evidenced by the detailed estimates of the State Statistics Service.
For comparison, in the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP growth was 2.8%, and in the first quarter of 2025 – +0.8%. At the same time, the detailed estimates of the state of Ukraine's real GDP are slightly lower than those previously published by the State Statistics Service. According to the agency's preliminary data, real GDP on an annual basis (in spring) fell by 0.5%.
Foreign trade: imports increased by 15.6% year-on-year due to high demand for engineering products, import of energy equipment, growth in petroleum product purchases, etc. At the same time, exports grew by only 1% year-on-year, which is insufficient to offset the activation of import flows.
Investment volume decreased by 7.9% year-on-year – in particular due to a reduction in budget capital expenditures (-33.6% year-on-year).
Household demand. Final household expenditures increased by 11% year-on-year. It is noted that this is partly related to wage growth in the public and private sectors.
Economic activity. Among the sectors that became the locomotive of the Ukrainian economy at the beginning of 2026:
- financial activities (+15.5% year-on-year),
- healthcare (+5.7% year-on-year),
- trade (+5.5%),
- public administration and defense (+2.8% year-on-year),
- mining industry (+2% year-on-year),
- manufacturing (+1.9% year-on-year) industry.
Meanwhile, negative dynamics were observed in:
- energy (-15.2% year-on-year),
- transport (-9.4%),
- education (-4.8% year-on-year),
- construction (-4.5% year-on-year).
At the same time, it is noted that the impact of different economic sectors on real GDP was uneven. According to the April inflation report, real GDP will begin to grow during 2026 and will reach 1.3% by the end of the year, and in 2027-2028 – 2.8-3.7%.
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