Unemployment is decreasing, but workers are lacking: what is happening in the Ukrainian labor market
According to the International Monetary Fund’s forecast, the unemployment rate in Ukraine in 2027 will be 11.3%.
In 2025, this figure was 11.6%, and in 2026 — 10.2%.
At the same time, official statistics of registered unemployed show a somewhat different picture. At the end of June 2026, there were 93.1 thousand registered unemployed in Ukraine, which is 2.2% less than a year ago, and 1.3% less than in May.
Overall, during the first half of 2026, 220.6 thousand people had the status of unemployed — 2.8% less than in the same period of 2025.
At the same time, the IMF estimates unemployment in the country overall according to the methodology of the International Labour Organization, while current statistics cover only people officially registered as unemployed. Therefore, a decrease in the number of registered unemployed does not necessarily mean that the same number of people found jobs: the status may be terminated, for example, due to enrollment in education, pension assignment, or at the request of the person themselves.
There remains a significant imbalance in the labor market
At the end of June, the State Employment Service database had 63.2 thousand vacancies — approximately 2 for every 3 registered unemployed. However, employers still experience a shortage of personnel, especially qualified workers. Job seekers' skills do not always meet the requirements of vacancies.
In which regions the number of unemployed changed
Compared to June 2025, the number of registered unemployed increased the most in certain western regions:
- Ivano-Frankivsk region — by 19.4%;
- Ternopil region — by 16.2%;
- Chernivtsi region — by 12%;
- Lviv region — by 10%;
- Volyn region — by 7.2%.
At the same time, in some regions the number of registered unemployed decreased:
- in Rivne region — by 9.1%;
- in Poltava region — by 6.9%;
- in Kyiv region — by 4.6%.
Such differences may be influenced by population movements between regions, the structure of the local economy, and employer demand.
As reported by the "Judicial and Legal Newspaper", according to estimates by the Ministry of Economy, about 25.9 million people live in the territory controlled by Ukraine. Among them, approximately 13.1 million are employed, 7.2 million are people aged 65 and older, and 5.1 million are children.
At the same time, the Ministry of Economy’s forecast for 2026–2036, prepared jointly with the company BMG, predicts an increase in the economy’s need for workers to about 14.6 million employed persons by 2036.
The greatest shortages are expected in technical, engineering, manufacturing, and construction professions, as well as in medicine, trade, and the service sector.
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